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US transshipment claims attempt to build ‘higher fence,’ disrupt global supply chains: experts_我的网站
A | 国家高新区和国家经开区等国家级园区作为创新要素高度集聚的重要载体，是培育未来产业从技术萌芽走向产业生态的前沿“试验场”。
When even major US allies and trading partners are swept into Washington's alleged China-linked transshipment network, is the US still cracking down on its so-called illegal tariff evasion, or is it raising its "small yard, high fence" higher and tighten it further by wielding its tariff stick and extending tariff controls across normal global supply chains?
The White House on Thursday released a report identifying roughly 40 economies as participants in what it calls a "Shadow Transshipment Network", alleging that Chinese goods are being routed through third countries to evade higher US tariffs. The list stretches across Asia, Europe and the Americas and includes some of Washington's closest allies and largest trading partners.
Chinese experts said the report is partly aimed at defending Washington's tariff policy by shifting responsibility for its weakened impact onto other economies, while also pressuring them to follow US trade and origin rules. In effect, the US is trying to extend its unilateral trade restrictions beyond its own borders and deeper into global supply chains, they said.
Build 'higher fence'
The 25-page report claims that US import sourcing saw a "substantial reallocation" after the 2018 tariffs, as China's direct share declined and imports from identified transshipment economies rose. It alleges that some goods were routed through lower-tariff jurisdictions, where minor processing, relabeling, repackaging, re-invoicing or paperwork changes were used to create the appearance of a new national origin.
However, the report itself acknowledges that alleged transshipment risks in several major economies are "embedded within broad legitimate trade flows." It also admitted that the post-2018 shift in US imports "does not establish" that all displaced Chinese trade was illegally transshipped and partly reflected "legitimate changes in production, investment, and sourcing."
False declarations of origin or simple repackaging can amount to tariff circumvention, but investing overseas, building factories abroad or sourcing components across borders are legitimate forms of supply-chain adjustment, experts said.
One purpose of the report is to portray Washington's tariff policy as effective while attributing its diminished impact to the responses of other economies, Zhou Mi, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times.
This allows Washington to shift responsibility onto other economies and put itself in a more favorable position in shaping the narrative around its tariff policy, Zhou said.
Cui Fan, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics, told the Global Times that US rules for determining country of origin are not fully aligned with those used by other economies. The latest move could pressure other countries to adopt US standards, but Cui said such an approach is unlikely to work.
"Countries formulate their rules of origin based on a range of factors, including the scale and technological conditions of their own industries," Cui said. "Industrial structures and the global division of labor cannot be reshaped simply through pressure from one country."
Harmonization of rules of origin - applying the same rules across countries regardless of purpose - "would facilitate the flow of international trade," according to WTO on its website.
It has also warned that misuse of such rules may turn them into "a trade policy instrument" rather than merely a device supporting other trade policy measures, according to WTO.
Washington was pursuing hegemonic politics and unilateral bullying in the economic and trade sphere under the guise of "reciprocity", a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce said when commenting on the US use of tariffs to pressure other countries into restricting economic and trade cooperation with China.
Disrupting global supply chains
Cui said production and trade networks linking China with South Korea, Europe and other economies have taken shape over years of market-driven specialization. By lowering production and logistics costs and improving efficiency, these networks have benefited businesses and consumers across participating economies.
"The real challenge facing global trade today is not so-called illegal transshipment, but the continued damage that unilateralism and trade protectionism are inflicting on the multilateral trading system," Cui added.
Since returning to office, the Trump administration has made tariffs a centerpiece of its trade policy, rolling out sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" and other broad duties that have drawn widespread criticism at home and abroad. On Thursday, Washington announced new Section 232 tariffs on drones and their parts and components, further expanding the range of products subject to US tariffs.
US tariffs have themselves pushed companies to reconfigure supply chains. Washington is now citing those very adjustments as evidence of circumvention, effectively using the market fallout from its own tariff policy to justify further trade restrictions, Chinese experts noted.
International trade is based on mutual benefit, and sovereign countries have the legitimate right to conduct economic and trade cooperation independently, Cui said. "No country should interfere with normal global trade simply to advance its own unilateral interests."
The report broadens its scrutiny beyond routing and documentation to include China-origin inputs or components, Chinese ownership or financing, relationships with Chinese suppliers or manufacturers, China-based production steps and China-origin routing histories.
Analysts believed the latest move is more than simply making the existing "high fence" higher. By trying to bring more economies and a larger portion of global supply chains within the reach of US tariff enforcement, Washington attempted to make the "yard" itself much bigger.
Cui warned that sustained US pressure to reshape normal trade and supply-chain links could fragment mature regional production networks, and reduce the efficiency of global resource allocation, with the impact extending far beyond China-US trade given the wide range of economies named in the report.
Zhou noted that companies would be forced to redesign supply chains to manage rising policy risks, adding costs that could feed back into the US through higher inflation while creating broader frictions and instability for global trade.
。因此，总结国家级园区增强未来产业技术多样性、市场可塑性和制度包容性的关键举措，并进一步提炼提升路径，对于推动未来产业因地制宜、错位发展具有重要意义。
B | 多线布局，以探索多技术路线丰富技术多样性 技术多样性上，未来产业通常呈现多种技术路线并行演进的格局。例如，量子计算领域的超导与离子阱路线、脑机接口领域的侵入式与非侵入式路线，均可能在性能、成本和适用场景等方面形成差异化优势。因此，未来产业发展需要为不同技术路线保留开放的探索空间。
C | 通过分散布局多条技术路线，为不同技术路线探索保留试错空间。园区围绕同一产业方向，对采用不同技术路线的创新企业实行前期介入和分阶段支持，避免资金、人才和平台资源过早向单一方向集中；并根据概念验证、工程化验证和产业化进展，动态追加、维持或调整支持，引导有限资源逐步向更具潜力的技术路线集中。例如，合肥高新区布局超导与离子阱两条量子计算技术路线，分别支持本源量子和幺正量子开展产业化探索，在企业初创阶段提供融资对接、公司选址、重大项目申报等全链条服务。 场景开放，以引入真实应用场景增强市场可塑性 市场可塑性上，未来产业处于市场培育“窗口期”，未来产业技术应用价值、用户需求和商业模式不存在预设答案，未来产业的市场空间是在技术试用与用户反馈中逐步形成的。
D | 因此，未来产业市场培育应以技术创新与市场反馈的持续互动为基础，不断发现技术应用价值、识别用户需求、探索商业模式，推动潜在需求转化为有效需求。 通过引入真实应用环境，推动技术创新与市场需求双向反馈，加速技术价值发现和商业模式形成。
E | 园区开放公共治理、工业生产和民生服务等场景，通过场景清单、政策准入等方式，为新技术、新产品提供首试首用机会。随着产品性能得到验证、使用成本逐步下降、商业模式日益清晰，更多企业和用户跟进采用，形成“场景验证—产品迭代—市场扩张”的正反馈，推动潜在需求逐步转化为可持续的有效需求。例如，北京经开区依托高级别自动驾驶示范区，通过需求挖掘、政策准入和商业运营，推动L4级及以上高级别自动驾驶潜在需求转化为有效需求。园区围绕出行、配送等应用场景，发放智能网联客运巴士道路测试牌照，开放无人配送车通行权限，并出台智能网联乘用车无人化收费商业试点政策，推动自动驾驶出租车、无人零售车和无人配送车率先实现商业化运营。 沙盒监管，以打造可控试验空间提升制度包容性 制度包容性上，随着未来产业技术应用领域不断拓宽，创新动能得到充分释放，同时也对隐私保护、数据安全与公共安全治理提出了新的要求。未来产业发展需要在牢守安全发展根基基础上，构建更具包容性、动态适应性的技术标准、安全规范与监管体系。
F | 沙盒监管通过设置边界明确、风险可控的试验空间，在赋能未来产业探索创新的同时，实现对风险的前置引导。园区通过“‘入盒’有标尺、‘在盒’有服务、‘出盒’有底线”的全周期监管。“入盒”环节，依据创新性、风险可控性等标准筛选入盒企业。“在盒”环节，企业公开试验方案和接受全过程监测，园区则在掌握风险状况的基础上，对符合试验约定的试错给予适度容错。“出盒”环节，园区依据技术效果、风险表现作出准予转入常规监管轨道或移出“沙盒”等决定，并将试验中积累的监管经验转化为准入标准。例如，杭州高新区围绕“中国数谷”建设，设立人工智能数据要素“改革沙盒”。园区聚焦智能网联汽车、多模态大模型等方向，在现行法律法规监管框架下，围绕数据加工确权、数据流通链式授权等关键环节，支持企业开展可控试验，并根据实践反馈优化监管规则。
G | 国家级园区未来产业的提升路径 前瞻布局和培育未来产业、推动园区新赛道高质量发展，关键在于营造“敢试”的制度环境和“能试”的要素条件。 “敢试”方面，构建“多线探索—场景开放—沙盒监管—路线收敛”的闭环培育路径。以多线布局打开技术探索空间，支持不同技术路线的创新企业并行探索。在此基础上，将阶段性成果导入真实应用场景，通过试点准入、首台（套）应用等方式引入首批用户，在产品验证和商业模式探索中进一步检验技术路线。
H | 针对场景应用中可能出现的新风险，实施沙盒监管，在园区内打造局部容错环境，鼓励入盒企业在不触及红线的前提下开展试验，并将实践形成的有效风险防控措施转化为园区的共性监管规则。最后，依据场景验证和沙盒试验形成的技术、市场与风险信息，动态调整支持重点，引导资源逐步向更具潜力的技术方向集中。
I | “能试”方面，构建面向未来产业的资本和人才支撑体系，夯实创新探索的要素基础。资本方面，针对概念验证、原型开发和工程化验证等不同阶段，采取“小额起投、分段投入、里程碑考核、滚动追加”的投资方式，在控制整体风险的同时保障潜力项目持续迭代。人才方面，引导和支持具有产业化潜力的青年科学家和科研团队携带技术成果、核心专利和骨干成员入园，并提供实验室、中试平台、创业辅导、融资支持等全链条服务，降低科研成果从实验室走向产业化的门槛。
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